IMF to Myanmar

အုုိင္အမ္အက္(ဖ)က ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံကို ဒီအခ်က္ေတြနဲ႔ ေထာက္ျပေ၀ဖန္ပါတယ္။

ကုန္စည္မ်ားမတင္ပို႔ႏိုင္ျခင္း။ (၁) the trade deficit,

လက္ရွိေငြပမာဏ အႏွဴတ္ျပေနျခင္း။ (၂) current account deficit and

ေငြေၾကးေဖါင္းပြမွဳပမာဏ ခန္႔မွန္းထားသည္ထက္ ပိုမ်ားေနျခင္း (၃) inflation have risen more than forecast,

ဘဏ္မ်ားမွ ထုတ္ေခ်းေငြ ပမာဏ ျမင့္တက္လာျခင္း (၄) while bank lending has soared and

ျမန္မာက်ပ္ေငြ အားေပ်ာ့လာျခင္း (၅) confidence in the kyat has weakened along with 
ကုန္ေစ်းႏွဴန္းမ်ားတက္လာျခင္း (၆) commodity prices.

အရန္ေငြပမာဏ (၇) foreign exchange reserves

သြင္းကုန္မ်ား ပမာဏမ်ားလာျခင္း (၈) Imports are growing too fast and

ေငြေၾကးပမာဏသည္ ေဒၚလာလိုအပ္ခ်က္ကို မျဖည့္စည္းႏိုင္ျခင္း (၉) capital inflows are not enough to meet demand for dollars.”

အကယ္ေရြ႔သာ ေဒၚလာရဲ႔ အတိုးႏွဴန္းျမွင့္လိုက္ပါက (၁၀)  “If the US raises its interest rates soon, the US dollar will become stronger and the kyat will be under even greater pressure.

A source close to the IMF said the “perfect storm” scenario also reflected concerns over the 
(၁၁) vulnerability of banks to a sudden cooling in the overheated property sector.  

(၁၂) Public sector salary increases, widely seen as linked to the (၁၃) forthcoming general elections and (၁၄) funded by printing money, are seen as contributing to the rise in inflation. (၁၅) Controls on dollar withdrawals from banks were said to have “raised perception of dollar shortage and insufficient dollar reserves”. (၁၇) concern over a 36pc increase in bank lending to the private sector over the 2014-15 fiscal year. (၁၈) lower-than-expected inflows of foreign investment.

(က) the IMF warns, urging the Central Bank to allow a “steady” fall in its value to help make exports more competitive and (ခ) reduce imports.

Commenting on the IMF’s findings, Sean Turnell, economist at Australia’s Macquarie University, said at the root of the problem was a (ဂ) state that commands too much of Myanmar’s economic resources.

(ယ) liberal economic reforms lie the old ways, the old mindset, the old irrationality, the old regime,” he said.  

The deficit could be reduced, the IMF said, by (င) reducing tax incentives and (စ) improving tax collection. In its public statement released on July 1, the IMF mission also called for(ဆ) “expenditure re-prioritisation” which was seen by some analysts as meaning less spending on the military and more on other sectors like health and education.

(ဇ) The IMF urged the CBM to “implement and enforce new reserve requirements on banks faster” and to prevent dollar hoarding by banks.